Tuesday, November 3, 2009


WE'RE IN CRUNCH MODE! UPDATE: Voting steady in state's largest cities | Portland Press Herald:
"Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap says he now expects more than 50 percent of Mainers would vote by the time polls close today.

By 2:30 p.m. Dunlap had visited polls in Portland, Old town, Augusta and Lewiston and revised his earlier estimate, based on absentee ballot returns, that 35 percent of Maine’s voters would turn out. He said it was obvious that people were show up at the polls.

'You see a lot of feet underneath the curtains,' said Dunlap.

Dunlap said he is fielding calls from media outlets around the country that are focusing on the same-sex marriage ballot question."

Experts--like Nate Silver--believed that a low voter turnout would mean that enemies of equality would dominate the polls (Nate Silver says that on gay marriage, Conservatives have the "enthusiasm edge"), and that HIGH VOTER TURNOUT would mean that young people and students who SUPPORT equality are feeling compelled to turn out to the polls despite not having major offices to vote for. We can assume that No On One is at least competing well if numbers are high.

Because the biggest question in this campaign is Marriage Equality, most pollsters guessed that the non-LGBT people most compelled to vote would be the people AGAINST Marriage Equality, so lower voter turnout would be bad news for Equality. The higher the number, the greater the percentage of those folks would be pro-equality.

Read more of Nate Silver's analysis here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/2009-elections-preview-maine-question-1.html

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