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WE'RE IN CRUNCH MODE! UPDATE: Voting steady in state's largest cities | Portland Press Herald:
"Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap says he now expects more than 50 percent of Mainers would vote by the time polls close today.

By 2:30 p.m. Dunlap had visited polls in Portland, Old town, Augusta and Lewiston and revised his earlier estimate, based on absentee ballot returns, that 35 percent of Maine’s voters would turn out. He said it was obvious that people were show up at the polls.

'You see a lot of feet underneath the curtains,' said Dunlap.

Dunlap said he is fielding calls from media outlets around the country that are focusing on the same-sex marriage ballot question."

Experts--like Nate Silver--believed that a low voter turnout would mean that enemies of equality would dominate the polls (Nate Silver says that on gay marriage, Conservatives have the "enthusiasm edge"), and that HIGH VOTER TURNOUT would mean that young people and students who SUPPORT equality are feeling compelled to turn out to the polls despite not having major offices to vote for. We can assume that No On One is at least competing well if numbers are high.

Because the biggest question in this campaign is Marriage Equality, most pollsters guessed that the non-LGBT people most compelled to vote would be the people AGAINST Marriage Equality, so lower voter turnout would be bad news for Equality. The higher the number, the greater the percentage of those folks would be pro-equality.

Read more of Nate Silver's analysis here:


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Chris Geidner: In Iowa, judges are ousted.

Via Chris Geidner's Poliglot blog at Metro Weekly:


In Iowa, which declared Iowa's marriage ban unconstitutional under the state's constitution in 2009, the National Organization for Marriage got one of its first electoral victories this year. The judicial retention elections appear to have resulted in the replacement of all three justices up for a vote this year.

Here, as of 3:35 a.m. and with 1767 out of 1774 precincts reporting, are the Iowa Secretary of State's election results:

Supreme Court Justice David L. Baker
Yes 443437 45.75%
No 525865 54.25%

Supreme Court Justice Michael J. Streit
Yes 442459 45.6%
No 527921 54.4%

Supreme Court Chief Justice Marsha Ternus
Yes 437118 44.99%
No 534486 55.01%

The court was unanimous in its 2009 ruling that Iowa's constitution required marriage equality."

Can we trust Rasmussen anymore?


Happy Hour Roundup will be coming late today. Fortunately, there is lots of news to report on! Unfortunately, there will be no time for me to collect it and send it. Expect it between 5pm and 6pm!